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• The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s real-time economic tracking model shows the economy is growing by 1.9%.

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• According to the Chamber’s Economic Growth Model, the economy will grow by 1.1% in the second quarter.

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Big picture: The combination of continued consumer spending and sustained job creation and wage growth is more than keeping the economy afloat.

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Why it matters: There is still a likelihood of a slowdown in economic growth later this year because of inflation and higher interest rates. The Chamber forecasts the economy will contract slightly in the third and fourth quarters this year, meeting the definition of a recession.

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• However, given the underlying strength of the economy, any slowdown or a recession is likely to be short-lived and mild.