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Why it matters: These analysts predict the economy will have a soft landing and avoid a recession in the wake of high inflation and higher interest rates used to combat it.

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• Yes, but: The Federal Reserve has never raised rates as much and as fast as it has since March 2022 without a recession occurring.

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Be smart: The chance of a soft landing has increased, but by no means is it assured.

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• Inflation is still high, especially the data point the Fed watches–core PCE inflation. The Fed may have to raise rates again in September, which would slow the economy more than anticipated.

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• Further, there are substantial lags when it comes to the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.

Big picture: We have been in a unique period since COVID began, so it is possible the Fed’s actions will not cause a recession. But to be banking on it is premature.

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• We still see a potential slowdown later this year that could drag into 2024 and meet the definition of a recession.