Business Economists Forecast Modest Growth Through 2024

Business Economists Forecast Modest Growth Through 2024

Business economists are lukewarm on the economy. The National Association of Business Economists (NABE) regularly releases a survey of prominent economists where it asks them about their outlooks for the economy. The responses from their most recent survey are interesting:

Economists in “the latest NABE Outlook Survey are divided as to whether a recession in the U.S. is likely in the next year. The median forecast calls for economic growth through 2024 to be modest. Interest rates are expected to decline and inflation is expected to slow in 2024, while job growth is anticipated to moderate, and the unemployment rate to rise.”

Why it matters: The NABE economic outlook is similar to ours at the Chamber. We see a slow economy in 2023 with a 65% chance of a recession this year.

Looking ahead:

  • We do not think interest rates are likely to fall in 2024 unless a significant, unforeseen shock happens to the economy.

  • On the debt limit, it’s impossible to know how long it would take for a breach of the debt limit to cause a global financial crisis, so it’s best not to test it.