The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter today. It now estimates the economy contracted by 0.6% last quarter. Initially, BEA found the economy contracted by 0.9%.

Why it matters: This revision is modestly positive. The economy still shrank, but not as much as we thought.

• The smaller contraction, and possibly another upward revision next month, will give those arguing that we did not have a recession in the first half of the year a slightly stronger argument.

Be smart: The economy did contract, by 1.6%, in the first quarter, so we had two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Usually, that marks a recession. It is the textbook definition of one.

• But: Other variables that define a recession, such as job losses, incomes declining, spending falling, and manufacturing lessening are holding steady.

Bottom Line: Despite the slower growth from higher interest rates and the uncertainty caused by persistently high inflation, we still forecast the economy will grow by almost 2% for the rest of the year. The U.S. economy can withstand a lot of negative pressure and continue to grow.

—Curtis Dubay, Chief Economist, U.S. Chamber of Commerce