On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released data on income, savings, spending, and inflation.
Inflation is at the top of everyone’s mind, and for good reason. It has been rising rapidly for a year and promises to remain high through 2022.
Why it matters: The latest data, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred measure, shows that inflation was 6.1% on annual basis in January. This is the highest level since February 1982.
Yes, but: The positive news is that the month-to-month changes are hovering around 0.6%. That means inflation is still high, but the pace of acceleration may be slowing. If this pattern sticks, it means inflation will remain high, but might not rise much higher than it is now.
Be smart: This doesn’t tell us when it will come down, but an end to rising inflation is the first step to it falling.
Other details:
- Spending in January surged 2.1%. That is a big gain after a lackluster December.
- Accounting for inflation, income dropped in real terms. The good news is that wages and salaries, more than half of all income, rose a strong 0.5%. However, even that robust growth could not outpace inflation, so real wages fell slightly.
- Savings dropped in January as consumers had to dip into savings to handle higher prices.
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