| One way to track our economic recovery is to look at how consumer spending responds to changes in virus levels. Since March 2020, when virus levels rise, consumer spending declines (reasonably so). But recent data shows that the two may be decoupling.
The Census Bureau reported Friday that retail sales rose 0.7% in September. They also rose 0.9% in August.
But: At that same time consumer sentiment plummeted because of the surge in COVID cases from the Delta variant.
Bottom line: In the last few months, consumers are not allowing COVID case levels to dictate their spending. And they’re spending even though they feel sour–as sour as they’ve felt during the pandemic—about the economy because of the Delta variant.
Hopefully this trend continues. If it does, it would signal strong growth going forward as increases in case levels would no longer be tied to drops in consumer activity.
—Curtis Dubay, Senior Economist, U.S. Chamber of Commerce |
