Why it matters: Now is a good time to look at where the economy may be heading and where the all-important level of inflation will be next year.

• Economic growth: On average the committee sees the economy growing 4% next year. Some see growth coming in as low as 2.8% or as high as 4.5%. They foresee the first quarter being the strongest quarter of the year and the fourth being the weakest.
• Inflation: The committee sees it running high until the middle of 2022. The average forecast is for 4.6% inflation at the end of the second quarter. The committee expects inflation to lessen in the second half of the year, ending 2022 at 3%.

Bottom line: The economy should be strong next year. But policy mistakes, like Congress passing Build Back Better, which would worsen inflation, would drive growth down. Policy improvements, like those that encourage workers to return to the labor force and loosening regulations that are hampering our supply chain, could drive growth even higher in the new year.

—Curtis Dubay, Senior Economist, U.S. Chamber of Commerce